Tropical Storm Erin could soon become the Atlantic’s first hurricane - National Hurricane Center

 Fifth time’s the charm? After an early summer lull, the Atlantic could soon have its first hurricane of the year: Erin.

This graphic shows the latest information on Tropical Storm Erin.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Erin intensified into a powerful tropical storm on Thursday night over the open tropical Atlantic, with sustained winds of 70 mph.

Read More: Atlantic hurricane season 2025: Invest 97L, next storm names

As the storm moves just north of the islands this weekend, it may bring rip currents, rain, strong surf, and gusty winds to areas of the far northeastern Caribbean.

Erin is still hundreds of miles from any land as she tracks west-northwest on Friday morning. As it moves over the Atlantic, the storm is predicted to get stronger over the next days and reach Category 4 hurricane status by Sunday.

Prior to Erin, four previous systems—Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter—ran the Atlantic basin, but none of them were more powerful than a tropical storm.

The first hurricane of the season is running a little behind schedule. Although there have been several early arrivals in recent seasons, the first hurricane of the season usually forms around August 11. At this time last year, there had already been three hurricanes: Ernesto, Debby, and Beryl.

This weekend, Erin is expected to turn gradually northward and pass just north of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands. On Thursday night, a number of the northern Leeward Islands were under tropical storm watches.

If Erin's route falters in the next few days, it is unlikely but not impossible that it will make direct landfall on any of the Caribbean islands.

Erin is more likely to create rip currents and churn up rough seas in the Caribbean throughout the weekend and early next week. Depending on how close Erin tracks to the islands, gusty wind and rain—which might occasionally be heavy—are also likely. Mudslides or flash flooding may also result from the storm's heavy rain.

What danger Erin might represent to Bermuda is too soon to tell. Early next week should provide more clarity on any possible effects on the island. Although it is not a given, the hurricane is currently predicted to avoid the United States. Next week, Erin may also produce deadly rip currents and choppy surf along the US East Coast, even if it stays offshore.

This element might affect Erin's track

Erin's ultimate course may depend on how rapidly it gets stronger in the upcoming days.

Sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic are far warmer than usual, so Erin has plenty of fuel to draw on. Although they are not quite as heated as the record highs set in 2023 and 2024, they are still significantly higher than they would be if pollution from fossil fuels hadn't caused global warming.

The National Hurricane Center warns that by Sunday, Erin could reach this extremely warm water and intensify into the season's first major hurricane, with a Category 3 or higher rating.

It is hotter than usual in the Atlantic

By comparing current readings with historical climatology, satellite data reveals sea surface temperature anomalies, or regions that are warmer or colder than anticipated during the same time of year.

Storm clouds rise in height and extend farther into the atmosphere when hurricanes intensify. They can use the quicker winds that are higher in the atmosphere to draw the storm further to the north thanks to their increased height.

In this instance, the Bermuda High, a huge, semi-permanent region of clockwise cycling high pressure that winds over the Atlantic Ocean, is frequently in control: The hurricane usually follows when the high turns the steering wheel.

The system might remain lower in the atmosphere, where the trade winds, which round the equator in a clockwise direction, could keep it traveling westward and stop it from turning, if Erin develops more slowly.

By the weekend, it will be evident whether scenario prevails, but any islands that might be in Erin's path should get ready in advance.

Additional possible tropical issues

The tropics typically come alive in August: Mid-August to mid-October is usually the busiest time of year. This year, forecasters anticipate above-normal tropical activity, and more storms may emerge soon.

The National Hurricane Center says a region of showers and thunderstorms in the southern part of the Gulf has a medium risk of developing into a tropical depression by the weekend.

Before moving inland by Friday night, most likely in southern Texas or northeastern Mexico, the stormy area has a brief window of opportunity to develop while floating over the Gulf's extremely warm water.

Regardless of whether a tropical storm or tropical depression occurs, the region might see periods of heavy rainfall on Friday. The Weather Prediction Center says that because of the expected arrival of moisture-loaded air, there is a Level 2 of 4 danger of flooding rain on Friday in far southern Texas and a Level 1 of 4 risk for the rest of the state's Gulf Coast and portions of southern Louisiana.

The National Weather Service in Brownsville, Texas, warned that the rain could cause minor flooding, particularly along low-lying or poorly-drained regions.